Buying property in an Earthquake zone: Why I never invested in Taiwan Real Estate

By Stephen A. Nelson

In light of the recent earthquakes and tsunami in Japan, I am re-presenting something I wrote in Forumosa about the wisdom of  buying a house or apartment in Taiwan - apart from the legal barriers and technical difficulties.  At the time, people disagreed with me and provided all the formulaic reasons for buying - "pride of ownership" et cetera. But I think this still stands - unlike the apartments in central Taiwan's earthquake zone.

1. First rule of investment:

If it appreciates, buy it. If it depreciates, lease it.

2. First rule of building houses:
"No man builds a house unless he first counts the cost."

As some have noted, When you buy a house/apartment, there are costs besides the mortgage, including, but not limited to: taxes, maintenance fees, legal fees, and (esp. if you plan to rent it out) agent's fees.

Oh, and insurance, which brings us to the next item...

3. Ancient wisdom about building in a flood zone. 
The wise man built his house upon the rock.
The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. 

The foolish man built his house upon the sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash." 

4. Did you feel that?
Earthquakes happen every day in Taiwan. 
The last "big one", September 21, 1999, was a magnitude 7.3.

The strongest aftershock, three days later, was 6.8. That's like calling Nagasaki an aftershock of Hiroshima
And you know what? Seismologist say that the 921 Earthquake WASN'T "the big one."

Oh, and most of the buildings that were destroyed were new buildings.

5. Rule of thumb for would-be home owners
Never buy a house/apartment in an earthquake zone. 

6. Ancient wisdom from 60s British television
"Anything can happen in the next half-hour!" 

The Last word in edgewise
If you want an investment, buy mutual funds, RSPs or life insurance.
If you want a place to live, rent a house or apartment.

The Tao of Taiwanese Sculpture 2: Zen and the Art of Juming

If there is one thing I learned in Taiwan, it’s this: 

language is an art, art is culture, and culture is politics. And in Taiwan, the best art — like the best politics — is rooted and grounded in tradition and history, but not bound by them.

By Stephen A. Nelson
The Brandon Sun
November 21, 2009

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou weathers typhoon fallout

By Stephen A. Nelson
Asia Times Online

TAIPEI - In what looked like a game of political lifeboat, Taiwan's premier Liu Chao-shiuan resigned late last week - after the government was heavily criticized for what media reports called a "slow, incompetent and uncaring response" to last month's Typhoon Morakot.

And in this game of lifeboat, there are those who say Liu jumped - and those who say he was pushed.

"Of course President Ma Ying-jeou wanted him to quit," said Li Wai, a television producer who supported Ma in the last election but who now has her doubts about the man many people have labelled "the Teflon president".

"Ma will not tell you what he wants - still he will expect you to do it," said Li.

Such criticisms are becoming more common in Taiwan, even in pro-Kuomintang (KMT) - the island's ruling party - media, in the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot.

Typhoons are a regular occurrence in Taiwan. And each year the country gets hit by several such tropical storms. People are usually prepared for the worst. But in the wake of last month's Typhoon Morakot, parts of southern Taiwan received more than three meters of rain - three times the average annual rainfall - in just three days. This was in areas of Taiwan already made landslide-prone by earthquakes, harmful irrigation practices and devastation of natural forests cut down to make way for cash crops such as betel nut trees.

The number of dead and missing is now put at more than 700, after landslides buried villages, destroyed bridges and wiped out roads - mainly in southern Taiwan, and largely in aboriginal communities.

When Liu announced his resignation on September 7, he told reporters that someone had to take political responsibility for the death and destruction. As the country's top administrator, he said, that someone had to be him.

Less than an hour after Liu's announcement of resignation, Ma announced he would be replaced with Wu Den-yih - secretary general of Kuomintang. Another KMT stalwart, Eric Chu, was named as the new vice premier.

When Liu resigned, he was expected to take his entire 42-member cabinet with him. And indeed, the cabinet did resign en masse. But by the time the new premier Wu Den-yih named his new cabinet on September 10, only a handful of ministers had been tossed out of the lifeboat. Most of the ministers who had resigned with Liu were back in the cabinet with Wu. Critical changes include:

Shi Yen-shiang, chairman of China Petroleum Corp, Taiwan's biggest oil company, was named the new economics minister. Tsai Hsung-hsiung, a minister without portfolio, took over from Chen Tain-jy as head of Taiwan's economic-planning council. Former Veteran's Affairs Commission director Kao Hua-chu, an experienced and highly regarded military leader, was named the new minister of national defense. Taiwan's representative to Indonesia and a former de facto ambassador to Australia, Timothy Yang, is the new foreign minister. Former minister of the interior, Liao Liou-yi, is the new secretary general of the Presidential Office. Former chairman of the Research, Development and valuation Commission, Jiang Yi-huah, is the new interior minister. Critical areas where there is no change included Finance Minister Lee Sush-der and Mainland Affairs Council chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan - both of whom were reappointed to their posts. In responding to the cabinet shuffle, most international media reports focused on what effect the moves would have on Taiwan's relations with China, rather than what difference they would make to the people in Taiwan and how they would affect them. Ma's game of lifeboat was seen as "a move that is unlikely to alter the administration's pro-China policy". And it was reported that "most analysts see no significant changes in President Ma Ying-jeou's foreign, economic or China policies emerging from the new cabinet". Western media reports noted, "Taiwan's leaders typically replace top officials in response to criticism of the government." They said that Ma's predecessor, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Chen Shui-bian, "changed premiers six times in eight years, seldom causing alarm". Western media reports noted the reasons for the moves as Ma exercising damage control after what was seen as "his inability to take responsibility for a poor response to the emergency". Over the past few weeks, there has been considerable, pointed criticism in the press, especially over the typhoon's unusually high casualty rate. The critics argued that: The government had failed to order evacuations before the storm hit. People were not given enough warning to get out of the way of the mudslides. The government was not prepared, even though typhoons and mudslides are a regular occurrence in Taiwan. The government refused offers of aid from foreign countries because it didn't want to look like it was acting like a real country that was separate from China. When the aid did come, it was too little and too late - especially when compared to how quickly and easily Ma's government got aid to their "Chinese brothers" after the earthquakes in Sichuan province last year. Responding with "shock and awe" tactics, the KMT's solution has been to set up a commission - composed of central government officials and representatives of powerful corporations, without a single aboriginal member - to oversee the move of aboriginals off their ancestral lands and "voluntarily relocate" them to other, safer locations that are less prone to landslides. Most of all, Ma and the KMT have been unfeeling, uncaring and petulant toward southern Taiwan and the people - mostly ethnic Taiwanese and aboriginals - who lived there. Jerome Keating, author of Taiwan, the Struggles of a Democracy, said this came as no surprise from a president whom Keating claims had constantly passed the buck. "A week after the destruction of the typhoon with the yet to be realized response of Ma's government, Ma had resorted to the blame game. First it was the Central Weather Bureau's fault for not giving a strong enough warning to prepare for the typhoon. Then it was the local magistrate's fault for not solving the problem, despite the fact that they had had no budget from the central government. Then it was the people's fault for not getting out of the way of the floods," Keating said. "The people - in Ma's words - were not as 'fully prepared' as they should have been. In the end, it was just about everyone's fault except Ma's. After all, he is only the president," Keating said. Ma did visit the affected areas - although only after a delay; he did publicly apologize, and he has ordered a public investigation into what went wrong in preparing for the typhoon and in dealing with the disaster. Still, foreign media reports have certainly pointed out that in the cabinet reshuffle - and in letting Liu take the fall - there is both damage control and buck-passing. And while the cabinet change was expected, indeed demanded - does it really address the criticisms directed at the government - especially those directed at Ma? The consensus in the media and with political analysts seems to be "no" - and that it was never really meant to. It's really meant as medicine to ease upset Taiwanese stomachs and make them feel better, so that the government can get on with business. "Reshuffling won't deal with the problem," said Keating. "Wu is a good old boy, more of the same." Liu Bih-rong, a professor of political science at Soochow University, seemed to agree: "The people had a lot of pent-up anger over the response [to the typhoon]," he said. "Ma panicked and for a while he lost direction as he tried to do damage control. Now with the reshuffle and as people have calmed down, he can put it behind him and refocus on China and economic issues." Indeed, media reports noted "the change from Liu to Wu is unlikely to cause many major waves, as power in this country largely rests with the president rather than the premier". What the reshuffle will do, analysts said, is consolidate power with Ma. Wu and Chu are ranking KMT members, while Ma is ready to reclaim his crown as chairman of the KMT. The Taiwan News, for example, noted that both Wu and Chu "will surely be more decisive in crisis management or disaster response than their technocratic predecessors". But, the paper added, Wu and Chu are "also deeply linked with local KMT and financial factions". So while Ma is not all alone in the lifeboat, he is definitely more in command. But will the reshuffle help the KMT in local elections later this year? Maybe. Certainly the disastrous response to the typhoon seriously damaged the reputation of the good ship KMT, so throwing unpopular members overboard and taking on some new crew members can't hurt. Keating is among those who thinks that much will depend on the ability of the opposition DPP to exploit this weak link in the KMT's chain. But, observers note, elections in Taiwan tend to be won in two places: in the media and on the ground with local community organizations. And, the KMT has many friends in the media. Also, in many cities and towns, the KMT has more ground troops and is better organized than the DPP. Even where it does not have more local troops (in southern Taiwan, for example) the KMT - as one of the richest political parties in the world - has a much bigger war chest. But will the reshuffle, as some experts have already suggested, help Ma in his bid for re-election in 2012? Maybe not. As noted earlier, even some KMT-owned media have been openly critical of Ma. And foreign media seem far less enchanted with someone they practically fawned over just 18 months ago. In an article on the East Asia Forum web site, J Bruce Jacobs, director of the Taiwan Research Unit at Monash University in Melbourne, summed up the reaction this way, "In many ways, Hurricane Katrina destroyed the presidency of George W Bush. Quite possibly, Typhoon Morakot will destroy the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou." Li Wai put it another way, "Before he became president, we expected - we hoped - that Ma Ying-jeou would be a good president," she said. "Now we know he is not." Li Fong-yi, a Taipei office worker who voted for Ma last time, was less gracious: "Actually, we knew Ma Ying-jeou would not be a good president, but we had no choice," she said. "Frank Hsieh [Ma Ying-jeou's DPP opponent] came with too much baggage from the DPP." Stephen A Nelson is a Canadian freelance journalist now based in Toronto but with one foot still in Taiwan. For eight years he worked as a journalist in Taiwan, including at the Taipei Times newspaper and at Radio Taiwan International, where he produced Strait Talk - a weekly program about Taiwan and its place in the world.

Lessons from 228: Taiwanese want to be protected - but from whom?

 The "228 Incident" is Taiwan's own Tiananmen Square and was the beginning of the Rape of Taiwan.
 Still, there are those who say, "Taiwanese don't want democracy. They want to be protected -- to be rich and to be protected."
But the question is "Protected from whom?"

Seeing Red at Chinese New Year: Taiwan in the Year of the Dog

Alice in Wonderland: The Lure of Taiwan for Ex-pats

By Stephen A. Nelson
Maple Leaf
Fall, 2005

Through the Looking Glass: The Lure of Taiwan for Expats Who Stay

Adapted from Maple Leaf Magazine

Autumn 2005

For some, Taiwan is a pit stop in the journey of life, or at least in a journey around Asia. They make some money (often quite good as far as temporary gigs go, especially), check out the nightlife and then move on to other locales.

Others, however, are captivated by the opportunities, lifestyle, culture, energy and ambience that the country abounds with. Even though they may have intended to stay only a few months, or perhaps a year or two at most, they linger longer; in some cases, decades or the rest of their lives.

Maple Leaf Magazine asked four Canadians – including broadcaster/journalist Stephen A. Nelson (born in Scotland and moved to Canada in 1965) why they remain here after years away from Canada. The insights about Taiwan and motivations for staying make for good reading, especially Stephen’s more humorous approach, complete with a mock interview - appropriate for a guy who first arrived in Taiwan on April Fool’s Day seven years ago.

Stephen in Wonderland

By Stephen A. Nelson

Maple Leaf: So, Stephen… What brought you to Taiwan in the first place?

Stephen: Canadian Airlines.

ML: I see. But what I mean is, “Why did you come to Taiwan?”

Stephen: I used to tell people that it was my purpose, my destiny, God’s plan for my life. But a lot of Canadians get real nervous when you tell them that - especially if it’s true. So now I just tell them I came here because I was lured by promises of love, money and future considerations.

ML: So how did you find Taiwan when you came here?

Stephen: I turned left at Japan.

ML: No, I mean did you find your destiny? Did you find love, money and future considerations?

Stephen: I did, but then I lost them.

ML: So what keeps you in Taiwan, then?

Stephen: Gravity… gravity and inertia. A body at rest tends to stay at rest.

ML: So why don’t you do something? Go somewhere?

Stephen: Well, I keep running and running, but never seem to get anywhere.

ML: Why’s that, do you think?

Stephen: Coming to Taiwan is like Alice stepping Through the Looking Glass. Things may look the same, but nothing works the way you expect it to. It's like playing speed chess through a mirror. Sometimes you have to move backwards to move forwards.

And there is always someone yelling, "Faster! Faster!" So you move faster.

But as the Red Queen says to Alice, "You have to run much faster than that if you want to go anywhere!

Will the real Ma Ying-jeou please stand up?

Adapted from
Asia Times Online
March 27, 2008

For years, the Kuomintang's (KMT) Ma Ying-jeou has been considered an heir to the presidency of Taiwan. Now that it has come true, and with a trail of contradictory campaign promises in his wake, the nation is left to decipher what kind of leader Ma will become. He already has some telling nicknames, among them "Mr Clean", "Mr Teflon" and "Mr Promises, Platitudes and Pablum."

In 2006, then-KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (right) was front and centre at a rally in Taipei calling on the Democratic Progressive Party's President Chen Shui-bian to step down. To the left of Ma is James Soong, a former governor of Taiwan. Soong split from the KMT in the year 2000 in order to run his own presidential campaign against KMT rival Lien Chan. But for the 2008 presidential election, Soong had rejoined the KMT's old guard to support Ma's presidential bid.

TAIPEI - Since the day when Ma Ying-jeou was chosen as the chairman of the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT) he was hailed as "a shoo-in" to win the presidential election. Even before he had declared any intention to do so, it seemed like the press had already decided that Ma had received the Mandate of Heaven and that he was pre-ordained to be the new emperor of the "Republic of China on Taiwan."

Now that that prophecy has been fulfilled at the weekend's presidential elections, the people of Taiwan - whether they call themselves Taiwanese, Chinese or aboriginal - will have two months to think about what kind of president they will get when former chairman Ma ascends to the throne.

That's because, despite the KMT's efforts (with the help of local and foreign news media) to paint Ma as a reliable, professional politician, in the last two years we have been given glimpses of the very different faces of Ma Ying-jeou. It seems that on almost every issue, every concern, Ma has at least two faces.

The foreign news media, following the lead of Taiwan's clearly pro-KMT press, have called Ma "Mr Clean" because of his efforts - while as Justice Minister in 1980s - to clean up corruption in the KMT. And even his fans have called him "Mr Teflon" because none of the accusations and charges against him ever seems to stick.

On the other hand, critics like historian Jerome Keating (author of several books on Taiwan, including Taiwan, the Struggles of a Democracy) call Ma "Mr Promises, Platitudes and Pablum" who "basks in his pseudo Mr Clean image and does his best to weasel out of any responsibility for his failings. For him, promises and platitudes are the answer for all, and the general public unfortunately is too naive to see through it."

The light in which the many faces of Ma seem most obvious is on the one issue that colors all of Taiwan's politics - the one issue that those outside Taiwan always focus on: the issue of unification with China.

Certainly this is the one thing China cares about. And ever since the democracy movement began in Taiwan, it has been the defining issue that separates "pan-green" parties like the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) (pro-independence, pro-Taiwan) from "pan-blue" parties like the KMT (pro-unification, pro-China.)

Shortly after becoming KMT chairman in mid-2005, Ma told the Associated Press that - if he became president - he would do "everything in his power" to "re-unify" Taiwan with China.

He was strongly critical of efforts by President Chen Shui-bian to "suspend" the already dormant National Unification Council and the National Unification Guidelines - drawn up by the KMT - that laid out exactly how the Taiwan should go about "re-unifying" with China.

But even as outgoing KMT chairman Lien Chan was cozying up to Beijing, and promising "One China", Ma sensed that the ground in Taiwan was shifting.

Coups - even "soft" coups and "people power" coups - were not going to win the day any more. Assassination attempts could backfire. The KMT had to accept that democracy was the battleground for getting and keeping power. And it had to accept that - on that battleground - elections were the rules of engagement. To win those elections, you needed the support of the people, including those people who increasingly were for the "status quo" of de facto independence or even those that were for formal, de jure independence.

So Ma and the KMT took out newspaper ads spelling out what they saw as the three options for Taiwan: unification, independence, status quo - suggesting that they were open to any or all of those options. When the KMT old guard gave him flak for that, Ma explained that what he meant was "independence is an option for Taiwan, but not for the KMT."

During this election, Ma changed again.

Ma was clearly the favorite in Beijing, who expected that a victorious Ma would make good on KMT promises to move forward on the unification issue.

But in a Taiwan where the people increasingly see themselves as being Taiwanese, not Chinese, being Beijing's first choice is not a good way to win the hearts and minds of the people. And certainly the protests and violent crackdowns in Tibet were seen as a cautionary tale for anyone who thought unification with China was a good idea.

So Ma went to great pains to distance himself both from Beijing, Lien Chan's promises to China, and his own promises to "do everything in [his] power" to unify Taiwan with China.

In the last days of the campaign he repeated his "Three Nos" - "no unification, no independence, no war."

Keating says that "Ma has promised everything and anything", hoping that he will hit something.

So if Ma keeps changing on this most fundamental issue, which Ma will the country get when he is sworn in as president on May 20?

Ma the Chinese nationalist dedicated to unification? Or Ma the Taiwanese democrat who will listen to the will of the people? What are we to think of Ma Ying-jeou?

On this, Keating is clear: "On my better days I call him a pretentious weasel ... At other times I have called him a chameleon on a weather vane, or a windsock; his position keeps changing depending on who he is talking to," Keating says.

"I can't keep up with him."

Stephen A Nelson is a Canadian freelance journalist now based in Toronto but with one foot still in Taiwan. For eight years he worked as a journalist in Taiwan, including two years at the Taipei Times newspaper. He was also a broadcaster at Radio Taiwan International, where he produced Strait Talk - a weekly program about Taiwan and it's place in the world.